Exam P Probability

Probability

Average
Pass Rate
Sponsoring SocietySOA
Dates ActiveFeb 2007 - Present
Sittings to Date104
Attempts per Sitting2,393
Total Passes/Attempts106,171 / 248,910
Highest Pass Rate64.9% Mar-20
Lowest Pass Rate34.9% May-08
Effective Pass Rate49.8%
Std Dev of Pass Rate4.8%

Chart
Table

#	SITTING_ID	EXAM_ID	DATE_PASSED	NUM_WROTE	EFF_NUM_WROTE	NUM_PASSED	PASS_RATE	EFF_PASS_RATE	PASS_MARK	DATE_ADDED	CUMULATIVE_AVERAGE	DISPLAY_DATE
104	1897	59	9/1/2024 12:00:00 AM	1837	1547	871	47.4	56.3	71.0	12/18/2024 12:00:00 AM	42.7	Sep-2024
103	1893	59	7/1/2024 12:00:00 AM	2457	2097	1159	47.2	55.3	71.0	10/29/2024 12:00:00 AM	42.6	Jul-2024
102	1871	59	5/1/2024 12:00:00 AM	1874	1558	819	43.7	52.6	71.0	7/30/2024 12:00:00 AM	42.6	May-2024
101	1839	59	3/1/2024 12:00:00 AM	1857	1542	822	44.3	53.3	71.0	5/24/2024 12:00:00 AM	42.6	Mar-2024
100	1827	59	1/1/2024 12:00:00 AM	1965	1656	911	46.4	55.0	71.0	4/3/2024 12:00:00 AM	42.6	Jan-2024
99	1808	59	11/1/2023 12:00:00 AM	1643	1379	740	45.0	53.7	71.0	2/2/2024 12:00:00 AM	42.5	Nov-2023
98	1772	59	9/1/2023 12:00:00 AM	1721	1448	748	43.5	51.7	71.0	11/28/2023 12:00:00 AM	42.5	Sep-2023
97	1762	59	7/1/2023 12:00:00 AM	2030	1763	986	48.6	55.9	71.0	10/1/2023 12:00:00 AM	42.5	Jul-2023
96	1752	59	5/1/2023 12:00:00 AM	1749	1507	824	47.1	54.7	71.0	8/8/2023 12:00:00 AM	42.4	May-2023
95	1713	59	3/1/2023 12:00:00 AM	1504	1289	721	47.9	55.9	71.0	5/27/2023 12:00:00 AM	42.4	Mar-2023
94	1703	59	1/1/2023 12:00:00 AM	1686	1454	778	46.1	53.5	71.0	3/31/2023 12:00:00 AM	42.4	Jan-2023
93	1692	59	11/1/2022 12:00:00 AM	1269	1080	543	42.8	50.3	71.0	1/30/2023 12:00:00 AM	42.3	Nov-2022
92	1649	59	9/1/2022 12:00:00 AM	1595	1358	742	46.5	54.6	71.0	1/6/2023 12:00:00 AM	42.3	Sep-2022
91	1626	59	7/1/2022 12:00:00 AM	1722	1458	750	43.6	51.4	71.0	11/10/2022 12:00:00 AM	42.3	Jul-2022
90	1580	59	5/1/2022 12:00:00 AM	1317	1102	562	42.7	51.0	71.0	9/6/2022 12:00:00 AM	42.3	May-2022
89	1578	59	3/1/2022 12:00:00 AM	1228	1022	499	40.6	48.8	71.0	6/21/2022 12:00:00 AM	42.3	Mar-2022
88	1574	59	1/1/2022 12:00:00 AM	1604	1370	748	46.6	54.6	71.0	4/9/2022 12:00:00 AM	42.3	Jan-2022
87	1526	59	11/1/2021 12:00:00 AM	1267	1067	562	44.4	52.7	71.0	1/21/2022 12:00:00 AM	42.3	Nov-2021
86	1528	59	9/1/2021 12:00:00 AM	1333	1138	596	44.7	52.4	71.0	1/24/2022 12:00:00 AM	42.3	Sep-2021
85	1525	59	7/1/2021 12:00:00 AM	1895	1590	888	46.9	55.8	71.0	11/17/2021 12:00:00 AM	42.3	Jul-2021
84	1497	59	5/1/2021 12:00:00 AM	1507	1276	723	48.0	56.7	71.0	7/25/2021 12:00:00 AM	42.2	May-2021
83	1463	59	3/1/2021 12:00:00 AM	1568	1318	769	49.0	58.3	71.0	6/27/2021 12:00:00 AM	42.2	Mar-2021
82	1451	59	1/1/2021 12:00:00 AM	1792	1533	922	51.5	60.1	71.0	4/17/2021 12:00:00 AM	42.1	Jan-2021
81	1430	59	11/1/2020 12:00:00 AM	1805	1547	906	50.2	58.6	71.0	1/25/2021 12:00:00 AM	42.0	Nov-2020
80	1396	59	9/1/2020 12:00:00 AM	1955	1707	957	49.0	56.1	71.0	12/3/2020 12:00:00 AM	42.0	Sep-2020
79	1362	59	7/1/2020 12:00:00 AM	2061	1851	1182	57.4	63.9	71.0	10/4/2020 12:00:00 AM	41.9	Jul-2020
78	1353	59	5/1/2020 12:00:00 AM	726	673	458	63.1	68.1	71.0	7/30/2020 12:00:00 AM	41.7	May-2020
77	1345	59	3/1/2020 12:00:00 AM	94	86	61	64.9	70.9	71.0	7/16/2020 12:00:00 AM	41.7	Mar-2020
76	1330	59	1/1/2020 12:00:00 AM	2227	1882	1026	46.1	54.5	71.0	4/5/2020 12:00:00 AM	41.7	Jan-2020
75	1300	59	11/1/2019 12:00:00 AM	1908	1582	855	44.8	54.0	71.0	2/20/2020 12:00:00 AM	41.6	Nov-2019
74	1270	59	9/1/2019 12:00:00 AM	2040	1686	886	43.4	52.6	71.0	11/26/2019 12:00:00 AM	41.6	Sep-2019
73	1266	59	7/1/2019 12:00:00 AM	2551	2098	1164	45.7	55.5	71.0	9/25/2019 12:00:00 AM	41.6	Jul-2019
72	1251	59	5/1/2019 12:00:00 AM	2214	1866	1040	47.0	55.7	71.0	7/26/2019 12:00:00 AM	41.5	May-2019
71	1214	59	3/1/2019 12:00:00 AM	2058	1729	883	42.9	51.1	71.0	6/2/2019 12:00:00 AM	41.4	Mar-2019
70	1206	59	1/1/2019 12:00:00 AM	2442	2060	1123	46.0	54.5	71.0	3/26/2019 12:00:00 AM	41.4	Jan-2019
69	1191	59	11/1/2018 12:00:00 AM	1850	1523	805	43.5	52.9	71.0	1/19/2019 12:00:00 AM	41.4	Nov-2018
68	1158	59	9/1/2018 12:00:00 AM	2249	1901	944	42.0	49.7	71.0	11/25/2018 12:00:00 AM	41.3	Sep-2018
67	1155	59	7/1/2018 12:00:00 AM	2866	2407	1223	42.7	50.8	71.0	10/26/2018 12:00:00 AM	41.3	Jul-2018
66	1145	59	5/1/2018 12:00:00 AM	2135	1772	899	42.1	50.7	71.0	8/15/2018 12:00:00 AM	41.3	May-2018
65	1081	59	3/1/2018 12:00:00 AM	2323	1960	952	41.0	48.6	71.0	6/3/2018 12:00:00 AM	41.3	Mar-2018
64	1071	59	1/1/2018 12:00:00 AM	2528	2127	1125	44.5	52.9	71.0	3/27/2018 12:00:00 AM	41.3	Jan-2018
63	1058	59	11/1/2017 12:00:00 AM	2046	1734	883	43.2	50.9	71.0	1/19/2018 12:00:00 AM	41.3	Nov-2017
62	1023	59	9/1/2017 12:00:00 AM	2420	2052	1002	41.4	48.8	71.0	11/23/2017 12:00:00 AM	41.2	Sep-2017
61	1014	59	7/1/2017 12:00:00 AM	2946	2470	1217	41.3	49.3	71.0	10/2/2017 12:00:00 AM	41.2	Jul-2017
60	1000	59	5/1/2017 12:00:00 AM	2352	1993	990	42.1	49.7	71.0	7/21/2017 12:00:00 AM	41.2	May-2017
59	962	59	3/1/2017 12:00:00 AM	2558	2132	1052	41.1	49.3	71.0	6/14/2017 12:00:00 AM	41.2	Mar-2017
58	950	59	1/1/2017 12:00:00 AM	2765	2401	1176	42.5	49.0	71.0	3/20/2017 12:00:00 AM	41.2	Jan-2017
57	929	59	11/1/2016 12:00:00 AM	2122	1797	889	41.9	49.5	71.0	1/27/2017 12:00:00 AM	41.2	Nov-2016
56	896	59	9/1/2016 12:00:00 AM	2597	2175	1084	41.7	49.8	71.0	11/26/2016 12:00:00 AM	41.2	Sep-2016
55	889	59	7/1/2016 12:00:00 AM	3322	2758	1429	43.0	51.8	71.0	9/26/2016 12:00:00 AM	41.2	Jul-2016
54	862	59	5/1/2016 12:00:00 AM	2499	2142	1109	44.4	51.8	71.0	8/1/2016 12:00:00 AM	41.2	May-2016
53	830	59	3/1/2016 12:00:00 AM	2719	2280	1098	40.4	48.2	71.0	6/10/2016 12:00:00 AM	41.1	Mar-2016
52	819	59	1/1/2016 12:00:00 AM	3020	2631	1307	43.3	49.7	71.0	3/24/2016 12:00:00 AM	41.1	Jan-2016
51	807	59	11/1/2015 12:00:00 AM	2157	1796	863	40.0	48.1	71.0	1/21/2016 12:00:00 AM	41.1	Nov-2015
50	769	59	9/1/2015 12:00:00 AM	2644	2155	986	37.3	45.8	71.0	11/21/2015 12:00:00 AM	41.1	Sep-2015
49	759	59	7/1/2015 12:00:00 AM	3110	2695	1428	45.9	53.0	71.0	9/25/2015 12:00:00 AM	41.2	Jul-2015
48	743	59	5/1/2015 12:00:00 AM	2502	2210	1178	47.1	53.3	71.0	7/26/2015 12:00:00 AM	41.0	May-2015
47	708	59	3/1/2015 12:00:00 AM	2796	2430	1255	44.9	51.6	71.0	6/6/2015 12:00:00 AM	40.9	Mar-2015
46	697	59	1/1/2015 12:00:00 AM	3057	2710	1457	47.7	53.8	71.0	3/20/2015 12:00:00 AM	40.8	Jan-2015
45	686	59	11/1/2014 12:00:00 AM	2313	2036	1014	43.8	49.8	71.0	1/24/2015 12:00:00 AM	40.7	Nov-2014
44	649	59	9/1/2014 12:00:00 AM	2615	2263	1106	42.3	48.9	71.0	11/23/2014 12:00:00 AM	40.6	Sep-2014
43	639	59	7/1/2014 12:00:00 AM	3278	2907	1511	46.1	52.0	71.0	9/21/2014 12:00:00 AM	40.6	Jul-2014
42	620	59	5/1/2014 12:00:00 AM	2943	2653	1386	47.1	52.2	71.0	7/19/2014 12:00:00 AM	40.4	May-2014
41	586	59	3/1/2014 12:00:00 AM	2767	2422	1171	42.3	48.3	71.0	6/2/2014 12:00:00 AM	40.3	Mar-2014
40	575	59	1/1/2014 12:00:00 AM	3117	2809	1514	48.6	53.9	71.0	3/26/2014 12:00:00 AM	40.2	Jan-2014
39	558	59	11/1/2013 12:00:00 AM	2691	2309	1138	42.3	49.3	68.0	1/24/2014 12:00:00 AM	40.0	Nov-2013
38	530	59	9/1/2013 12:00:00 AM	2856	2426	1198	41.9	49.4	68.0	12/3/2013 12:00:00 AM	39.9	Sep-2013
37	521	59	7/1/2013 12:00:00 AM	3543	3017	1509	42.6	50.0	68.0	9/20/2013 12:00:00 AM	39.9	Jul-2013
36	508	59	5/1/2013 12:00:00 AM	2805	2410	1207	43.0	50.1	68.0	7/19/2013 12:00:00 AM	39.8	May-2013
35	479	59	3/1/2013 12:00:00 AM	2888	2485	1149	39.8	46.2	64.0	6/3/2013 12:00:00 AM	39.7	Mar-2013
34	469	59	1/1/2013 12:00:00 AM	3513	3062	1533	43.6	50.1	64.0	4/27/2013 12:00:00 AM	39.7	Jan-2013
33	458	59	11/1/2012 12:00:00 AM	2557	2137	965	37.7	45.2	63.0	4/27/2013 12:00:00 AM	39.5	Nov-2012
32	429	59	9/1/2012 12:00:00 AM	2425	2039	880	36.3	43.2	64.0	4/27/2013 12:00:00 AM	39.6	Sep-2012
31	419	59	7/1/2012 12:00:00 AM	3188	2725	1250	39.2	45.9	63.0	4/27/2013 12:00:00 AM	39.7	Jul-2012
30	408	59	5/1/2012 12:00:00 AM	2831	2413	1106	39.1	45.8	63.0	4/27/2013 12:00:00 AM	39.7	May-2012
29	377	59	3/1/2012 12:00:00 AM	2342	1977	891	38.0	45.1	63.0	4/27/2013 12:00:00 AM	39.7	Mar-2012
28	368	59	1/1/2012 12:00:00 AM	2973	2574	1243	41.8	48.3	63.0	4/27/2013 12:00:00 AM	39.8	Jan-2012
27	356	59	11/1/2011 12:00:00 AM	2574	2251	1098	42.7	48.8	63.0	4/27/2013 12:00:00 AM	39.7	Nov-2011
26	328	59	9/1/2011 12:00:00 AM	2380	2027	947	39.8	46.7	61.0	4/27/2013 12:00:00 AM	39.6	Sep-2011
25	320	59	7/1/2011 12:00:00 AM	2851	2503	1136	39.8	45.4	63.0	4/27/2013 12:00:00 AM	39.6	Jul-2011
24	308	59	5/1/2011 12:00:00 AM	3093	2707	1362	44.0	50.3	63.0	4/27/2013 12:00:00 AM	39.5	May-2011
23	285	59	3/1/2011 12:00:00 AM	2154	1860	891	41.4	47.9	63.0	4/27/2013 12:00:00 AM	39.3	Mar-2011
22	278	59	1/1/2011 12:00:00 AM	3020	2697	1350	44.7	50.1	63.0	4/27/2013 12:00:00 AM	39.3	Jan-2011
21	269	59	11/1/2010 12:00:00 AM	2127	1888	902	42.4	47.8	63.0	4/27/2013 12:00:00 AM	39.0	Nov-2010
20	252	59	9/1/2010 12:00:00 AM	1766	1528	666	37.7	43.6	63.0	4/26/2013 12:00:00 AM	38.9	Sep-2010
19	246	59	7/1/2010 12:00:00 AM	2681	2421	1188	44.3	49.1	63.0	4/26/2013 12:00:00 AM	38.9	Jul-2010
18	238	59	5/1/2010 12:00:00 AM	2699	2427	1239	45.9	51.1	63.0	4/26/2013 12:00:00 AM	38.6	May-2010
17	214	59	3/1/2010 12:00:00 AM	2571	2275	1039	40.4	45.7	63.0	4/26/2013 12:00:00 AM	38.2	Mar-2010
16	208	59	1/1/2010 12:00:00 AM	2575	2315	1094	42.5	47.3	63.0	4/26/2013 12:00:00 AM	38.1	Jan-2010
15	199	59	11/1/2009 12:00:00 AM	2596	2255	1067	41.1	47.3	63.0	4/26/2013 12:00:00 AM	37.8	Nov-2009
14	179	59	9/1/2009 12:00:00 AM	2436	2113	943	38.7	44.6	63.0	4/26/2013 12:00:00 AM	37.6	Sep-2009
13	172	59	7/1/2009 12:00:00 AM	2751	2348	1047	38.1	43.7	63.0	4/26/2013 12:00:00 AM	37.6	Jul-2009
12	164	59	5/1/2009 12:00:00 AM	3017	2626	1147	38.0	43.7	63.0	4/26/2013 12:00:00 AM	37.5	May-2009
11	140	59	3/1/2009 12:00:00 AM	2888	2392	1110	38.4	46.4	62.0	4/26/2013 12:00:00 AM	37.5	Mar-2009
10	135	59	1/1/2009 12:00:00 AM	2664	2204	1021	38.3	46.3	62.0	4/26/2013 12:00:00 AM	37.4	Jan-2009
9	127	59	11/1/2008 12:00:00 AM	2627	2112	955	36.4	45.2	63.0	4/26/2013 12:00:00 AM	37.3	Nov-2008
8	105	59	9/1/2008 12:00:00 AM	2536	2037	895	35.3	43.9	62.0	4/26/2013 12:00:00 AM	37.4	Sep-2008
7	99	59	7/1/2008 12:00:00 AM	3022	2478	1127	37.3	45.5	62.0	4/26/2013 12:00:00 AM	37.7	Jul-2008
6	91	59	5/1/2008 12:00:00 AM	3321	2902	1158	34.9	39.9	63.0	4/26/2013 12:00:00 AM	37.7	May-2008
5	65	59	2/1/2008 12:00:00 AM	3416	2988	1494	43.7	50.0	59.0	4/26/2013 12:00:00 AM	38.3	Feb-2008
4	54	59	11/1/2007 12:00:00 AM	3142	2770	1181	37.6	42.6	68.0	4/26/2013 12:00:00 AM	36.9	Nov-2007
3	33	59	8/1/2007 12:00:00 AM	3705	3192	1341	36.2	42.0		4/26/2013 12:00:00 AM	36.7	Aug-2007
2	24	59	5/1/2007 12:00:00 AM	3519	3090	1289	36.6	41.7		4/26/2013 12:00:00 AM	36.9	May-2007
1	2	59	2/1/2007 12:00:00 AM	3050	2574	1138	37.3	44.2		4/26/2013 12:00:00 AM	37.3	Feb-2007

Distribution of Travel Times to Designations

METRIC	ASA	FSA
Number of People	15,049	6,749
5th percentile	2.83	4.67
25th percentile	4.00	6.08
Median	5.08	7.33
Average	5.46	7.73
75th percentile	6.50	9.08
95th percentile	9.38	12.08

ASA

FSA

Exam to Exam Analysis

This table shows what other exams people have passed given that they passed exam P. A breakdown of the time between exams is also shown.

Sitting date:
Only include active exams (exam P is an active exam)
Only include SOA exams (exam P is an SOA exam)

					Breakdown						Total
					Passed Before		Passed in Same Month		Passed After		Total
				EXAM	# PPL	YEARS	# PPL	YEARS	# PPL	YEARS	# PPL	YEARS	% PPL

% of People Who
Passed Other Exams

Average Years
Between Exams

Note on the travel time information above:

The histograms and the above two charts (near) exclude duplicate names and include changed names. Excluding duplicate names is necessary since travel time information related to them is unreliable and nonsensical- for instance, passing exam P three years before receiving a designation.

Including changed names has an impact on the relative number of people who passed other exams vs. the given exam. Their inclusion will lower this ratio since changed names will not properly link between previous/future exam passes. However, including changed names will not affect the average travel times, since travel times of changed names are not necessarily different than those of unchanged names.

For exam P on all sittings, there were 10,962 duplicate names, 12,857 changed names, and 2,664 duplicate and changed names.

Exam P Probability

Distribution of Travel Times to Designations

Exam to Exam Analysis

This table shows what other exams people have passed given that they passed exam P. A breakdown of the time between exams is also shown.

Note on the travel time information above:

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Site Info

Exams / SOA / P

Exam P Probability

Distribution of Travel Times to Designations

Exam to Exam Analysis

This table shows what other exams people have passed given that they passed exam P. A breakdown of the time between exams is also shown.

Note on the travel time information above:

Site Content

Site Info